Survey: 60% of Small Business Owners Expect a Recession

By: M. Scott Morris
Published: May 5th, 2025

A new Alignable report reveals growing unease among small business owners: 60% believe a recession is on the horizon.

This data, collected from 8,083 small business owners between March 13 and April 24, spotlights how inflation, instability, and new tariffs are hitting entrepreneurs hard right now.

"The fact that 60% of business owners now expect a recession shows just how deeply uncertainty around tariffs is taking hold," said Eric Groves, Alignable's co-founder and CEO. "In times like these, business owners need greater access to resources. That's why it's critical for business owners to understand and unlock the resources contained in their networks."

Groves added that strategic planning, smart connections, and community support can make all the difference in staying resilient and growing in a turbulent economy.

As economic uncertainty mounts, small business owners are flashing warning signs that could ripple into broader markets. See the full report here.

Key findings include:

• 73% say they're earning less than they were one year ago, up 5 points from early March.
• 59% say tariffs are making them less optimistic about 2025, a 9-point spike.
• 29% rank inflation as their No. 1 concern.

State and industry highlights include:

• More than half of small business owners in 34 U.S. states now expect a recession, including those in New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Texas, Maryland, North Carolina, Maine, and Massachusetts.
• States with the lowest levels of concern are: Florida, Indiana, and Arizona (50%), Alabama and Kentucky (49%), Louisiana and South Carolina (46%), and Oklahoma (43%).
• Industries expected to be hit the hardest include restaurants (67%), retailers (65%), and manufacturers (64%), all sectors sensitive to rising costs and shifting consumer habits.

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