Tariff Toll: 44% of Small Businesses Report Revenue Drop

By: M. Scott Morris
Published: July 7th, 2025

As tariff threats escalate, so do economic alarms from Main Street. Alignable’s June Tariff Report, developed in collaboration with researchers from Harvard Business School and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, reveals several troubling trends. But this one sets the tone: 44% of small business owners are already seeing revenue declines tied to tariffs and ongoing uncertainty. That's up sharply from 26% in May.

Even more alarming: 20% fear their businesses won’t survive into 2026 if trade war policies persist or escalate.

“The trade war isn’t just affecting a few industries or importers," said Eric Groves, Alignable’s CEO. "The uncertainty is cascading through supply chains, cutting into margins, and stifling confidence throughout the economy. Small business owners are caught in the crossfire.”

Additional key findings:

• Entrepreneurs in Massachusetts (54%), New York (49%), Illinois (45%), and California, Florida, Washington, and New Jersey (42%) report tariff-related sales declines.
• Long-term concerns are rising with 59% in Massachusetts, 53% in California and North Carolina, and 50% in Pennsylvania anticipating continued slumps.
• Hardest-hit industries: wholesale trade (72%), restaurants (71%), retail (57%), and manufacturing (56%).
• Other struggling sectors: construction (52%), travel (52%), agriculture (50%), and healthcare (35%).
• Silver lining: 53% of small business owners say networking for new business, local suppliers, and referral partners and other pivots are helping them fight back to some extent.

Get more details and see the full report here.

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