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Retail sales will grow between 4 and 6 percent and reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion in 2023, says a new forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF). Those numbers compare with 7 percent annual growth to $4.9 trillion in 2022. The 2023 forecast is above the pre-pandemic, average annual retail sales growth rate of 3.6 percent.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels.”
The projected numbers for 2023 includes non-store and online sales, which are expected to grow between 10 and 12 percent year-over-year to a range of $1.41 trillion to $1.43 trillion. While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process. As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 percent of total retail sales.
NRF projects full-year GDP growth of around 1 percent, reflecting a slower economic pace and half of the 2.1 percent increase from 2022. Inflation is on the way down but will remain between 3 and 3.5 percent for all goods and services for the year. The trade organization anticipates job growth to decelerate in the coming months in lockstep with slower economic activity and the prospect of restrictive credit conditions. The unemployment rate is likely to exceed 4 percent before next year.
You can read more about the report here NRF 2023 Annual Retail Sales Forecast.