Nationwide Unemployment Claims Show Increases

New unemployment claims increased by 3.5% week over week on Aug. 25 and were 4.4% higher compared to the same week last year, according to WalletHub.

"The dynamic has shifted towards employers when it comes to hiring as employers have slowed their hiring rate significantly, but employers are reluctant to reduce headcount as they recall the challenges of hiring a few years ago," said Daraius Irani, chief economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute (RESI), Towson University.

Irani added that unemployment might begin to creep up as consumers may cut back their spending or go down market (fast casual to fast food). "We are seeing some evidence of consumers slowing down their spending, which will have a domino effect across all parts of the U.S. economy," he said.

The following states had unemployment claims last week that were higher than in the previous week: Tennessee, Connecticut, Nebraska, Mississippi, Alaska, North Dakota, Kansas, Massachusetts, Illinois, South Dakota, New York, Oregon, Maine, Iowa, Delaware, Michigan, Arkansas, Virginia, California, Maryland, West Virginia, Washington, Colorado, and Idaho. Washington, D.C., also saw an increase in claims.

"The hiring dynamic is currently slightly tilted towards the employers. Job creation has slowed down—July payrolls rose just 73,000 with considerable downward revisions to prior months—and unemployment is steady," said Haiyong Liu, chair, Department of Finance and Economics, Texas State University. "Hiring is concentrated in a few areas, notably healthcare, while most major industries show little change. Openings have drifted down to about 7.4 million positions, and the quits rate is back near its 2017–2019 range, signaling less leverage for workers to job hop."

While there was an increase in weekly claims nationally, 29 states, including Wisconsin, Massachusetts, and North Dakota, had unemployment claims last week that were better than the same week last year. 

Biggest increase last week

1.  Connecticut
2.  Tennessee
3.  Washington, D.C.
4.  Nebraska
5.  Illinois
6.  Oregon
7.  Virginia
8.  Mississippi
9.  New York
10.  California

Smallest increase last week

42.  Florida
43.  Georgia
44.  Arkansas
45.  Arizona
46.  Montana
47.  Indiana
48.  Alabama
49.  Vermont
50.  Wisconsin
51.  New Hampshire

"I expect unemployment to slightly edge up, not spike, in the near future," Liu said. "With openings and hires off their peaks and layoffs still low, we might be experiencing a cooling but still robust labor market."

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